AI 是泡沫嗎？Howard Marks 解析 5 兆美元基礎建設豪賭

Published:
  Lastmod: 2025-12-17
隨手記
by Ernest Chiang

Post Title Image (圖說：Frozen soap bubble。圖片來源：Photo by Jill Warvel on Unsplash。)

✳️ tl;dr

  • Howard Marks 認為 AI 展現「非理性繁榮」跡象，但泡沫通常只能事後識別，當前估值雖高但尚未達到瘋狂程度 1
  • 「泡沫最有趣的方面之一在於其規律性，並非指時間上的規律，而是指其發展過程的規律性。某種新穎且看似革命性的事物出現，悄悄滲入人們的腦海，激發他們的想像力，並帶來難以抑制的興奮感。早期參與者獲得巨額收益，而那些旁觀者則感到無比的羨慕和後悔，並出於害怕繼續錯失良機的心理，蜂擁而至。他們這樣做，既不了解未來會發生什麼，也不考慮他們付出的代價是否能帶來合理的回報和可承受的風險。」
  • AI 符合泡沫特徵：革命性技術、FOMO 驅動投機、超高估值，但「這次不同」可能 20% 機率成立。（大家都想預測未來但又想保留餘地？
  • 循環交易引發疑慮：Nvidia 投資 OpenAI 1,000 億美元，OpenAI 用這筆錢購買 Nvidia 晶片，Goldman Sachs 估計 Nvidia 15% 銷售來自此類交易
  • 資料中心投資規模驚人：JPMorgan 估計 AI 基礎建設擴建總成本約 5 兆美元，明年支出接近 5,000 億美元
  • 債務融資風險升高：Oracle、Meta、Alphabet 發行 30 年期債券為 AI 投資融資，殖利率僅比美國國債高 100 個基點或更少
  • Warren Buffett 提醒：汽車是 20 世紀上半葉最重要發明，但 2,000 家汽車公司中只有 3 家倖存，技術重要不等於投資者能獲利
  • AWS Hero Ernest 建議 技術決策者 應建立多供應商策略，避免單一依賴 Nvidia，同時評估 AWS Trainium、Google TPU 等替代方案，以為成本控制和供應鏈韌性
  • AI 晶片實際使用壽命僅 1-3 年，但企業採用 5-6 年折舊，Michael Burry 指控科技巨頭誇大盈餘 2
  • Nvidia 從年度 2 年產品週期轉為年度發布，Jensen Huang 開玩笑：「Blackwell 出貨後，Hopper 根本送不掉」
  • Anthropic 80% 營收來自企業客戶，B2B 模式因更高客單價更有前景，產品策略應優先企業市場 3
  • OpenAI 預計 2028 年前持續巨額虧損，HSBC 估計到 2030 年仍不盈利，需額外 2,070 億美元資金 4
  • Google TPU 成為 Nvidia 最強勁對手，第 7 代 Ironwood 能效提升 2 倍，成本效益達 Nvidia 的 1.4 倍，目標 2027 年奪取 10% 市佔 5
  • SPV (特殊目的載體) 用於資料中心融資，隱藏資產負債表外的債務，類似 Enron 模式引發擔憂
  • WEF 預測到 2030 年 AI 將取代 85 百萬工作但創造 97 百萬新工作，但新工作 77% 需要碩士學位，人力資源策略需要根本調整 6
  • 2025 年已有 77,999 個工作因 AI 流失，平均每天 491 人失業，Microsoft 30% 程式碼由 AI 撰寫，40% 裁員針對工程師 7
  • 歷史類比：AI 泡沫類似 1860 年代鐵路熱潮和 1920 年代航空泡沫，都是「拐點泡沫」加速技術採用但犧牲投資者 1
  • 當前 AI 巨頭平均 P/E 比率約 34，低於 2000 年網路泡沫的 59，但 Shiller CAPE 達 40.40 接近網路泡沫水平 8

✳️ 知識圖譜

(更多關於知識圖譜…)

graph LR
    %% Concept Classes - Orange
    AI[AI Technology]:::concept
    Bubble[Market Bubble]:::concept
    Infra[Infrastructure]:::concept
    Finance[Financing Methods]:::concept
    Competition[Market Competition]:::concept
    
    %% Instances - Blue
    Nvidia[Nvidia]:::instance
    OpenAI[OpenAI]:::instance
    Microsoft[Microsoft]:::instance
    DataCenter[Data Centers]:::instance
    GPUs[AI Chips/GPUs]:::instance
    Capex[Capital Expenditure]:::instance
    Debt[Debt Financing]:::instance
    SPV[Special Purpose Vehicles]:::instance
    CircularDeals[Circular Deals]:::instance
    FOMO[FOMO]:::instance
    Valuation[High Valuations]:::instance
    SeedRounds[Billion Dollar Seed Rounds]:::instance
    
    %% Technology Flow
    AI -->|requires| Infra
    Infra -->|consists of| DataCenter
    DataCenter -->|uses| GPUs
    Nvidia -->|manufactures| GPUs
    
    %% Investment Flow
    Finance -->|includes| Capex
    Finance -->|includes| Debt
    Capex -->|builds| DataCenter
    Debt -->|structures through| SPV
    
    %% Company Relationships
    OpenAI -->|partners with| Microsoft
    Nvidia -->|invests in| OpenAI
    OpenAI -->|buys from| Nvidia
    Microsoft -->|invests in| OpenAI
    
    %% Bubble Dynamics
    AI -->|creates| Bubble
    Bubble -->|driven by| FOMO
    FOMO -->|leads to| Valuation
    Valuation -->|manifests in| SeedRounds
    CircularDeals -->|inflates| Bubble
    
    %% Market Structure
    AI -->|shapes| Competition
    Competition -->|determines| Valuation
    Nvidia -->|dominates| Competition
    
    %% Circular Transactions
    CircularDeals -->|involves| Nvidia
    CircularDeals -->|involves| OpenAI
    
    %% Financial Risk
    Debt -->|increases| Bubble
    SPV -->|obscures| Debt
    
    %% Styling
    classDef concept fill:#FF8000,stroke:#000,stroke-width:2px
    classDef instance fill:#0080FF,stroke:#000,stroke-width:2px

sequenceDiagram
    participant Tech as New Technology
    participant Early as Early Investors
    participant Media as Media/Hype
    participant Mass as Mass Investors
    participant Market as Market Price
    
    Tech->>Early: Revolutionary promise
    Early->>Market: Generate returns
    Market->>Media: Attract attention
    Media->>Mass: Create FOMO
    Mass->>Market: Pour in capital
    Market->>Market: Price inflation
    Note over Market: Irrational Exuberance
    Market->>Mass: Bubble bursts
    Mass->>Mass: Losses occur

stateDiagram-v2
    [*] --> Installation
    Installation --> Speculation
    Speculation --> BubblePeak
    BubblePeak --> Correction
    Correction --> Deployment
    Deployment --> Maturity
    Maturity --> [*]
    
    note right of Installation
        Infrastructure building
    end note
    
    note right of Speculation
        Capital inflow
    end note
    
    note right of BubblePeak
        Maximum valuation
    end note
    
    note right of Correction
        Value destruction
    end note
    
    note right of Deployment
        Real value creation
    end note
    
    note right of Maturity
        Stable returns
    end note

flowchart TD
    Start[AI Investment Need] --> Decision{Use Debt?}
    Decision -->|Yes| Debt[Issue Debt]
    Decision -->|No| Equity[Use Cash Flow]
    
    Debt --> SPV[Create SPV]
    SPV --> OffBalance[Off-Balance Sheet]
    OffBalance --> Risk1[Hidden Risk]
    
    Debt --> DataCenter[Build Data Center]
    DataCenter --> Question1{Revenue adequate?}
    Question1 -->|No| Default[Default Risk]
    Question1 -->|Yes| Repay[Debt Repayment]
    
    DataCenter --> Question2{Tech obsolete?}
    Question2 -->|Yes| Stranded[Stranded Assets]
    Question2 -->|No| Value[Asset Value]
    
    Default --> Crisis[Financial Crisis]
    Stranded --> Loss[Investment Loss]
    
    Equity --> LowerRisk[Lower Risk]
    Repay --> Success[Success]
    Value --> Success
    LowerRisk --> Success

graph TB
    subgraph DotCom[Dot-com Bubble 1998-2000]
        DC1[No existing products]
        DC2[P/E Ratio: 59]
        DC3[Few users]
        DC4[IPO frenzy]
        DC5[No revenue model]
    end
    
    subgraph AI[AI Boom 2023-2025]
        AI1[Existing products]
        AI2[P/E Ratio: 34]
        AI3[1 billion+ users]
        AI4[Private mega-rounds]
        AI5[Revenue but losses]
    end
    
    DotCom -.Similar.-> AI
    DC1 -.vs.- AI1
    DC2 -.vs.- AI2
    DC3 -.vs.- AI3
    DC4 -.vs.- AI4
    DC5 -.vs.- AI5
    
    Both[Common Factors] --> F1[FOMO]
    Both --> F2[Circular Deals]
    Both --> F3[High Valuations]
    Both --> F4[Speculative Behavior]

✳️ 延伸閱讀

  1. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/is-it-a-bubble ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. https://blog.citp.princeton.edu/2025/10/15/lifespan-of-ai-chips-the-300-billion-question/ ↩︎

  3. https://fortune.com/2025/11/12/openai-cash-burn-rate-annual-losses-2028-profitable-2030-financial-documents/ ↩︎

  4. https://fortune.com/2025/11/26/is-openai-profitable-forecast-data-center-200-billion-shortfall-hsbc/ ↩︎

  5. https://wccftech.com/hot-take-the-true-ai-chip-challenge-for-nvidia-isnt-from-amd-or-intel-its-googles-tpus-heating-up-the-race/ ↩︎

  6. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5316265 ↩︎

  7. https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/ai-replacing-jobs-2025 ↩︎

  8. https://www.allaboutai.com/resources/ai-bubble/ ↩︎